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LCR (vehicle Loss-of-Control Risk) Forecast Archives

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Update for November 26, 2023: A new LCR/BFP+ chart generation server is currently in final stages of development and will go online soon. In the meantime, stay tuned to the LCR Twitter account for the latest charts and updates on when the new system goes online. Stay tuned! - Dan

Unless otherwise noted, all charts are Day 1 forecasts that plot the maximum LCR and BFP values for all gridpoints over the first 24-hour period beginning at the model's initialization time. Day 2 charts plot maximum values over the 24-hour period from model hour 24 to hour 48.

2023: January | February | March | April | May

2022: December

May 2023

Date	LCR	BFP	V
5/9	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/8	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/7	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/6	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/5	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/4	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/3	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/2	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
5/1	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5

April 2023

Date	LCR	BFP	V
4/30	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/29	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/28	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/27	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/26	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/25	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/24	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/23	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/22	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/21	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/20	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/19	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/18	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/17	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/16	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/15	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/14	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/13	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/12	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/11	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/10	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/9	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/7	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/6	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/5	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/4	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/3	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/2	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
4/1	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5

March 2023

Date	LCR	BFP	V
3/31	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/30	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/29	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/28	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/27	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
3/26	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/25	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
3/24	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/23	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/22	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/21	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/20	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/19	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/18	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/17	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/16	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/15	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/14	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/13	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/12	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/11	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/10	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/9	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/8	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/7	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/6	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
3/5	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/4	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
3/3	12z HRRR 18z HRRR 12z NAM NEST 18z NAM NEST	12z HRRR 18z HRRR 12z NAM NEST 18z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
3/2	06z HRRR 12z HRRR 12z HRRR (AZ/NM) 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 12z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
3/1	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5

February 2023

Date	LCR	BFP	V
2/28	12z HRRR 12z NAM NEST	12z HRRR 12z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/27	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/26	12z HRRR 12z HRRR (New England) 12z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR Day 2 (New England) 12z NAM NEST	12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2 12z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/25	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/24	00z NAM NEST 12z HRRR	00z NAM NEST 12z HRRR	1.1.5 / 1.1.6
2/23	12z NAM NEST	12z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/22	06z NAM NEST 12z HRRR	06z NAM NEST 12z HRRR	1.1.5 / 1.1.6
2/21	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/20	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/19	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/18	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/17	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/16	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/15	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/14	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/13	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/12	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/11	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/10	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/9	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
2/8	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/7	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/6	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/5	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/4	12z NAM NEST	12z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/3	12z NAM NEST	12z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/2	12z NAM NEST	12z NAM NEST	1.1.5
2/1	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5

January 2023

Date	LCR	BFP	V
1/31	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.5
1/30	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST	1.1.5
1/29	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR Day 2 (Texas) 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
1/28	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2	1.1.6 / 1.1.5
1/27	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.4 / 1.1.3
1/26	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.3
1/27	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.4 / 1.1.3
1/24	00z NAM NEST 00z NAM NEST (Southern Plains)	00z NAM NEST	1.1.3
1/23	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.3
1/22	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.4 / 1.1.3
1/21	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.3
1/20	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.4 / 1.1.3
1/19	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.3
1/18	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.4 / 1.1.3
1/17	12z HRRR 12z NAM NEST	12z HRRR 12z NAM NEST	1.1.4 / 1.1.3
1/16	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	06z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	1.1.4 / 1.1.3
1/15	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.1
1/14	06z NAM NEST	06z NAM NEST	1.1.1
1/13	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.1
1/12	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.1
1/11	00z HRRR 00z HRRR (Midwest) 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.2 / 1.1.1
1/10	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.1
1/9	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST 00z NAM NEST (Midwest)	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.2 / 1.1.1
1/8	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 00z NAM NEST	1.1.2 / 1.1.1
1/7	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.1
1/6	00z HRRR	00z HRRR	1.1.2
1/5	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	1.1.2
1/4	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.1
1/3	00z HRRR 00z HRRR (Midwest) 00z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR	1.1.2
1/2	00z HRRR		1.1.2
1/1	00z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST	1.1.1

December 2022

Date	LCR	BFP	V
12/31	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	1.1.2
12/30	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	1.1.2
12/29	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	1.1.2
12/28	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	1.1.2
12/27	12z HRRR	12z HRRR	1.1.2
12/26	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2	00z HRRR 12z HRRR	1.1.2
12/25	18z HRRR 18z HRRR Day 2	18z HRRR	1.1
12/24	00z HRRR	00z HRRR	1.1
12/22	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2	00z HRRR	1.1
12/21	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 18z HRRR 30-Hour	00z HRRR 00z HRRR Day 2 18z HRRR	1.1
12/20	12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2	12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2	1.1
12/19	00z HRRR 18z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 18z NAM NEST	1.1
12/18	01z HRRR 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2 18z HRRR 18z HRRR Day 2	01z HRRR 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2 18z HRRR 18z HRRR Day 2	1.1
12/17	17z HRRR	17z HRRR	1.1
12/16	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST 18z HRRR	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST 18z HRRR	1.1
12/15	00z NAM NEST 00z NAM NEST (Mid-Atlantic) 12z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST	1.1
12/14	12z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST (Mid-Atlantic) 18z NAM NEST	12z NAM NEST 18z NAM NEST	1.1
12/13	12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2 18z HRRR 18z HRRR Day 2	12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2 18z HRRR 18z HRRR Day 2	1.1
12/12	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR 18z HRRR 18z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST 06z NAM	06z HRRR 06z HRRR Day 2 12z HRRR 18z HRRR 18z HRRR Day 2 06z NAM NEST 06z NAM	1.1
12/11	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST 06z HRRR 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST 06z HRRR 12z HRRR 12z HRRR Day 2	1.1
12/10	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST	1.1
12/9	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST	00z NAM NEST 12z NAM NEST	1.1
12/8	00z HRRR 12z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	00z HRRR 12z HRRR 06z NAM NEST	1.1
12/7	06z GFS 18z GFS	06z GFS 18z GFS	1.1
12/6	00z GFS 06z GFS 18z GFS	00z GFS 06z GFS 18z GFS	1.0
12/5	12z GFS 18z GFS	18z GFS	1.0